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2024-12-13 12:01:45

European Central Bank President Lagarde: The proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been agreed by everyone. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been agreed by everyone, and inflation is expected to reach 2% in the medium term. There are some discussions about cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, but it is generally believed that a 25 basis point cut is the right move. The wage level will reach a level consistent with the inflation target of 2%.According to HKEx documents, iFLYTEK Medical Technology Co., Ltd. passed the listing hearing of HKEx.Germany's current account surplus in October was 12.497 billion euros.


European Central Bank President Lagarde: Domestic inflation remains high. Inflation will fluctuate around the current level in the short term. Domestic inflation reflects the influence of wage pressure and service industry.US President-elect Trump: We will reduce the corporate tax to 15%.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The inflation problem has not yet been completed. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the inflation problem has not yet been completed and the anti-inflation task has not yet ended, but inflation is moving towards the goal.


Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.European members of NATO are considering increasing the proportion of military expenditure. On the 12th, several European officials reported that some European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are considering increasing the proportion of national defense expenditure in their gross domestic product (GDP), from the current 2% to 3%.Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.

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